Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox

All Chicago White Sox predictions · All Boston Red Sox predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 5, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 0-4

The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 57.4%
Books consensus 57.4%
Result Boston Red Sox won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago White SoxBoston Red Sox
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +120 -137
DraftKings +131 -140
ESPN BET +126 -142
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +128 -138
Hard Rock Bet +130 -140
Caesars +135 -145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago White SoxBoston Red Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.6% 57.4%
Best book price incl. vig 42.6% 57.8%
Kalshi contract price 42.5% 57.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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