Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions
MLB · Wednesday, August 5, 2026 · 7:40 PM · Final: 2-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| BetRivers | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +120 | -128 |
| ESPN BET | +110 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +118 | -126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +120 | -130 |
| Caesars | +123 | -133 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Pirates | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -235 | −1.5 +180 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -199 | −1.5 +163 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -215 | −1.5 +170 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +165 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -215 | −1.5 +176 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +180 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +162 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
| BetRivers | 7 -108 | 7 -110 |
| DraftKings | 7 -106 | 7 -113 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
| FanDuel | 7 -114 | 7 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +125 | 7.5 -135 |
| Caesars | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 44.8% | 55.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Markets average | 45.0% | 55.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.