Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners

All Detroit Tigers predictions · All Seattle Mariners predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 5, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 2-4

The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 58.3%
Books consensus 58.3%
Result Seattle Mariners won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit TigersSeattle Mariners
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +133 -152
DraftKings +136 -144
ESPN BET +131 -148
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +138 -148
Hard Rock Bet +140 -150
Caesars +135 -145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit TigersSeattle Mariners
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 41.7% 58.3%
Best book price incl. vig 41.7% 59.0%
Kalshi contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Polymarket contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Markets average 41.5% 58.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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