Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All Baltimore Orioles predictions
MLB · Thursday, August 6, 2026 · 12:36 PM · Final: 4-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Los Angeles Angels | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +163 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +169 | -182 |
| ESPN BET | +162 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +166 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +170 | -180 |
| Caesars | +165 | -180 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Angels | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -120 | −1.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -124 | −1.5 +102 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -126 | −1.5 +105 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -120 | −1.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -115 | −1.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -126 | −1.5 +105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -115 | −1.5 +105 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -110 | −1.5 -110 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9.5 -115 | 9.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 9.5 -112 | 9.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | 9.5 -114 | 9.5 -106 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 -115 | 9.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 9.5 -115 | 9.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 9.5 -115 | 9.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 9.5 -115 | 9.5 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Los Angeles Angels | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 37.0% | 64.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Markets average | 36.0% | 64.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.