Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles

All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All Baltimore Orioles predictions

MLB · Thursday, August 6, 2026 · 12:36 PM · Final: 4-1

The model's call
Baltimore Orioles to win
Model confidence 63.2%
Books consensus 63.2%
Result Los Angeles Angels won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles AngelsBaltimore Orioles
BetMGM +155 -190
BetRivers +163 -190
DraftKings +169 -182
ESPN BET +162 -185
Fanatics +160 -195
FanDuel +166 -180
Hard Rock Bet +170 -180
Caesars +165 -180

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles AngelsBaltimore Orioles
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.8% 63.2%
Best book price incl. vig 37.0% 64.3%
Kalshi contract price 35.5% 64.5%
Polymarket contract price 36.5% 63.5%
Markets average 36.0% 64.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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