Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions
MLB · Thursday, August 6, 2026 · 2:11 PM · Final: 2-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 |
| BetRivers | +107 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +121 | -129 |
| ESPN BET | +111 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +110 | -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -120 |
| Caesars | +110 | -121 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Pirates | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +170 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +175 | +1.5 -235 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -193 | −1.5 +158 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -225 | −1.5 +175 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +165 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -215 | −1.5 +176 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +180 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +175 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -104 | 7.5 -115 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -106 | 7.5 -114 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -104 | 7.5 -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.2% | 54.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.0% | 54.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.