Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs

All Toronto Blue Jays predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions

MLB · Thursday, August 6, 2026 · 2:21 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Result Chicago Cubs won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Toronto Blue JaysChicago Cubs
BetMGM -118 -102
BetRivers -113 -103
DraftKings -108 +101
ESPN BET -111 -102
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -108 +100
Hard Rock Bet -110 +100
Caesars -111 +101

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Toronto Blue JaysChicago Cubs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.1% 48.9%
Best book price incl. vig 51.9% 49.8%
Kalshi contract price 51.0% 49.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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