Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees

All Atlanta Braves predictions · All New York Yankees predictions

MLB · Friday, August 7, 2026 · 9:01 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 53.9%
Books consensus 53.9%
Result New York Yankees won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Atlanta BravesNew York Yankees
BetMGM +105 -125
BetRivers +112 -127
DraftKings +114 -122
ESPN BET +110 -130
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +112 -122
Hard Rock Bet +115 -125
Caesars +110 -121

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Atlanta BravesNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.1% 53.9%
Best book price incl. vig 46.5% 54.8%
Kalshi contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Polymarket contract price 46.5% 53.5%
Markets average 46.0% 54.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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