Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies
All Toronto Blue Jays predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions
MLB · Friday, August 7, 2026 · 8:41 PM · Final: 5-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Toronto Blue Jays | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +180 | -220 |
| BetRivers | +195 | -225 |
| DraftKings | +187 | -202 |
| ESPN BET | +175 | -210 |
| Fanatics | +175 | -215 |
| FanDuel | +186 | -205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +190 | -200 |
| Caesars | +187 | -207 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Blue Jays | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -120 | −1.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -120 | −1.5 -103 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -118 | −1.5 -102 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -120 | −1.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -120 | −1.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -120 | −1.5 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -115 | −1.5 +105 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -115 | −1.5 -105 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -112 | 7.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -118 | 7.5 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Toronto Blue Jays | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 33.9% | 66.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| Markets average | 33.5% | 66.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.