Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals

All Chicago Cubs predictions · All Kansas City Royals predictions

MLB · Friday, August 7, 2026 · 8:11 PM · Final: 6-4

The model's call
Chicago Cubs to win
Model confidence 60.9%
Books consensus 60.9%
Result Chicago Cubs won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago CubsKansas City Royals
BetMGM -175 +145
BetRivers -186 +163
DraftKings -165 +153
ESPN BET -170 +145
Fanatics -170 +140
FanDuel -164 +150
Hard Rock Bet -160 +150
Caesars -163 +153

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago CubsKansas City Royals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 60.9% 39.1%
Best book price incl. vig 61.5% 38.0%
Kalshi contract price 61.5% 38.5%
Polymarket contract price 61.5% 38.5%
Markets average 61.5% 38.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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