Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees

MLB · Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 3:06 PM

The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 54.8%
Books consensus 54.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Atlanta BravesNew York Yankees
BetMGM -135 +110
DraftKings -135 +112
ESPN BET -135 +115
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -134 +114
Caesars -125 +115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Atlanta BravesNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.8% 45.2%
Best book price incl. vig 55.6% 46.5%
Kalshi contract price 55.0% 45.0%
Polymarket contract price 53.5% 46.5%
Markets average 54.2% 45.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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