Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies

All Toronto Blue Jays predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 6:06 PM · Final: 7-5

The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 61.3%
Books consensus 61.3%
Result Toronto Blue Jays won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Toronto Blue JaysPhiladelphia Phillies
BetMGM +145 -180
BetRivers +160 -186
DraftKings +157 -168
ESPN BET +145 -170
Fanatics +145 -175
FanDuel +152 -166
Hard Rock Bet +155 -165
Caesars +157 -172

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Toronto Blue JaysPhiladelphia Phillies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 38.7% 61.3%
Best book price incl. vig 38.5% 62.3%
Kalshi contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Polymarket contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Markets average 38.5% 61.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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