Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers

All Baltimore Orioles predictions · All Texas Rangers predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 1-5

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 57.6%
Books consensus 57.6%
Result Texas Rangers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Baltimore OriolesTexas Rangers
BetMGM +125 -155
BetRivers +138 -159
DraftKings +136 -146
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +130 -140
Hard Rock Bet +130 -140
Caesars +135 -145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Baltimore OriolesTexas Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.4% 57.6%
Best book price incl. vig 42.0% 58.3%
Kalshi contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Polymarket contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Markets average 42.0% 58.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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