Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox

All Cleveland Guardians predictions · All Chicago White Sox predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 3-6

The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 54.5%
Books consensus 54.5%
Result Chicago White Sox won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox
BetMGM -135 +110
BetRivers -125 +110
DraftKings -125 +117
ESPN BET -135 +115
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -126 +116
Hard Rock Bet -125 +115
Caesars -125 +115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.5% 45.5%
Best book price incl. vig 55.6% 46.1%
Kalshi contract price 55.5% 44.5%
Polymarket contract price 54.5% 45.5%
Markets average 55.0% 45.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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