Houston Astros at San Diego Padres
All Houston Astros predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 2-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Houston Astros | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +110 | -124 |
| DraftKings | +108 | -116 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +106 | -116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +110 | -121 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Astros | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -225 | −1.5 +170 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +168 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -215 | −1.5 +170 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +165 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +172 | +1.5 -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +180 | +1.5 -190 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +162 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| DraftKings | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -125 | 7.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| FanDuel | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Houston Astros | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 47.6% | 53.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.