Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals

All Chicago Cubs predictions · All Kansas City Royals predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 7:10 PM · Final: 3-6

The model's call
Chicago Cubs to win
Model confidence 59.0%
Books consensus 59.0%
Result Kansas City Royals won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago CubsKansas City Royals
BetMGM -165 +135
BetRivers -165 +143
DraftKings -148 +138
ESPN BET -155 +135
Fanatics -155 +130
FanDuel -150 +140
Hard Rock Bet -150 +140
Caesars -153 +143

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago CubsKansas City Royals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 59.0% 41.0%
Best book price incl. vig 59.7% 41.2%
Kalshi contract price 59.5% 40.5%
Polymarket contract price 58.5% 41.5%
Markets average 59.0% 41.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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