Houston Astros at San Diego Padres
All Houston Astros predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 8:21 PM · Final: 2-7
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Houston Astros | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 |
| BetRivers | +102 | -115 |
| DraftKings | +103 | -111 |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +106 | -116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +104 | -114 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Astros | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -215 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +158 | +1.5 -192 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +160 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +158 | +1.5 -192 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +175 | +1.5 -185 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +162 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
| BetRivers | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
| DraftKings | 9 -113 | 9 -107 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -135 | 8.5 +115 |
| Fanatics | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
| FanDuel | 9 -106 | 9 -114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +120 |
| Caesars | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Houston Astros | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.5% | 52.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.