Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals
All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All St. Louis Cardinals predictions
MLB · Monday, August 10, 2026 · 7:46 PM · Final: 6-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| BetRivers | -115 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -114 | +106 |
| ESPN BET | -125 | +105 |
| Fanatics | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -114 | +104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -115 | +105 |
| Caesars | -112 | +102 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Phillies | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -165 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -175 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -163 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -165 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -165 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +138 | +1.5 -166 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -150 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -165 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
| BetRivers | 9 -114 | 9 -106 |
| DraftKings | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +115 | 9.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
| FanDuel | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +120 |
| Caesars | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 52.8% | 48.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Markets average | 52.5% | 47.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.