Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

All Boston Red Sox predictions · All Toronto Blue Jays predictions

MLB · Monday, August 10, 2026 · 7:07 PM · Final: 1-2

The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 59.9%
Books consensus 59.9%
Result Toronto Blue Jays won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays
BetMGM -165 +135
BetRivers -159 +140
DraftKings -161 +150
ESPN BET -165 +140
Fanatics -155 +130
FanDuel -158 +146
Hard Rock Bet -155 +145
Caesars -162 +152

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 59.9% 40.1%
Best book price incl. vig 60.8% 39.7%
Kalshi contract price 60.5% 39.5%
Polymarket contract price 59.5% 40.5%
Markets average 60.0% 40.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record