Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
All Boston Red Sox predictions · All Toronto Blue Jays predictions
MLB · Monday, August 10, 2026 · 7:07 PM · Final: 1-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -165 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -159 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -161 | +150 |
| ESPN BET | -165 | +140 |
| Fanatics | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -158 | +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -155 | +145 |
| Caesars | -162 | +152 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Red Sox | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +102 | +1.5 -124 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -121 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +105 | +1.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +104 | +1.5 -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -120 |
| Caesars | −1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -118 | 8 -102 |
| BetRivers | 8 -112 | 8 -107 |
| DraftKings | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 8 -125 | 8 +105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 60.8% | 39.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| Markets average | 60.0% | 40.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.