Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins

All Baltimore Orioles predictions · All Minnesota Twins predictions

MLB · Monday, August 10, 2026 · 7:42 PM · Final: 5-9

The model's call
Minnesota Twins to win
Model confidence 50.0%
Books consensus 50.0%
Result Minnesota Twins won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Baltimore OriolesMinnesota Twins
BetMGM -105 -115
BetRivers -115 -104
DraftKings -103 -105
ESPN BET -110 -110
Fanatics -110 -110
FanDuel -104 -104
Hard Rock Bet -105 -105
Caesars -108 -102

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Orioles −1.5
priced 38.1% to cover · 7 books
Minnesota Twins covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8
priced 51.3% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 8.5
Over 8 (14 scored)
Spread by book OriolesTwins
BetRivers −1.5 +140 +1.5 -175
DraftKings −1.5 +153 +1.5 -186
ESPN BET −1.5 +150 +1.5 -180
Fanatics −1.5 +150 +1.5 -185
FanDuel −1.5 +150 +1.5 -182
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +160 +1.5 -170
Caesars −1.5 +158 +1.5 -190
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8 -118 8 -102
BetRivers 8 -122 8 -115
DraftKings 8 -117 8 -103
ESPN BET 8.5 +100 8.5 -120
Fanatics 8.5 +100 8.5 -120
FanDuel 8.5 -106 8.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 +105 8.5 -115
Caesars 8 -115 8 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Baltimore OriolesMinnesota Twins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 50.0% 50.0%
Best book price incl. vig 50.7% 50.5%
Kalshi contract price 50.0% 50.0%
Polymarket contract price 49.5% 50.5%
Markets average 49.7% 50.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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