Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants

All Houston Astros predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions

MLB · Monday, August 10, 2026 · 9:46 PM · Final: 6-3

The model's call
Houston Astros to win
Model confidence 57.7%
Books consensus 57.7%
Result Houston Astros won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Houston AstrosSan Francisco Giants
BetMGM -155 +125
BetRivers -148 +128
DraftKings -140 +130
ESPN BET -145 +125
Fanatics -155 +130
FanDuel -142 +132
Hard Rock Bet -145 +135
Caesars -147 +137

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Houston AstrosSan Francisco Giants
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 57.7% 42.3%
Best book price incl. vig 58.3% 42.2%
Kalshi contract price 57.9% 42.1%
Polymarket contract price 57.5% 42.5%
Markets average 57.7% 42.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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