Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers

All Cleveland Guardians predictions · All Detroit Tigers predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 4-6

The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 56.6%
Books consensus 56.6%
Result Detroit Tigers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Cleveland GuardiansDetroit Tigers
BetMGM +120 -145
BetRivers +123 -148
DraftKings +131 -140
ESPN BET +120 -140
Fanatics +120 -145
FanDuel +124 -134
Hard Rock Bet +125 -135
Caesars +127 -137

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Cleveland GuardiansDetroit Tigers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.4% 56.6%
Best book price incl. vig 43.3% 57.3%
Kalshi contract price 44.1% 55.9%
Polymarket contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Markets average 44.3% 55.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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