Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers
All Cleveland Guardians predictions · All Detroit Tigers predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 4-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| BetRivers | +123 | -148 |
| DraftKings | +131 | -140 |
| ESPN BET | +120 | -140 |
| Fanatics | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +124 | -134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -135 |
| Caesars | +127 | -137 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Guardians | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +145 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +140 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -172 | −1.5 +142 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +145 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -192 | −1.5 +158 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +160 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +143 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| BetRivers | 8 -127 | 8 -113 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 43.3% | 57.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| Polymarket contract price | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Markets average | 44.3% | 55.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.