Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 0-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | -110 | -104 |
| DraftKings | -116 | +108 |
| ESPN BET | -110 | -110 |
| Fanatics | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -106 | -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -110 | +100 |
| Caesars | -108 | -102 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Pirates | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -169 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +162 | +1.5 -196 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -175 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +143 | +1.5 -170 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 -105 | 7 -115 |
| BetRivers | 7 -110 | 7 -109 |
| DraftKings | 7 -105 | 7 -115 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +120 |
| Fanatics | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
| FanDuel | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +125 |
| Caesars | 7 -105 | 7 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 51.5% | 48.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Markets average | 50.5% | 49.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.