Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

All Boston Red Sox predictions · All Toronto Blue Jays predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 3-5

The model's call
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Model confidence 55.3%
Books consensus 55.3%
Result Toronto Blue Jays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays
BetMGM +110 -135
BetRivers +123 -139
DraftKings +120 -129
ESPN BET +115 -135
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +120 -130
Hard Rock Bet +125 -135
Caesars +117 -127

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 44.7% 55.3%
Best book price incl. vig 44.4% 55.9%
Kalshi contract price 44.1% 55.9%
Polymarket contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Markets average 44.3% 55.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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