Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
All Boston Red Sox predictions · All Toronto Blue Jays predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 3-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| BetRivers | +123 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +120 | -129 |
| ESPN BET | +115 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +120 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -135 |
| Caesars | +117 | -127 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Red Sox | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +165 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -198 | −1.5 +162 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +160 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +160 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +164 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +175 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +158 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
| BetRivers | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 +105 |
| DraftKings | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 -128 | 6.5 +104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 44.4% | 55.9% |
| Kalshi contract price | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| Polymarket contract price | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Markets average | 44.3% | 55.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.