New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
All New York Mets predictions · All Atlanta Braves predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 7:45 PM · Final: 0-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Mets | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +130 | -160 |
| BetRivers | +110 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +131 | -150 |
| ESPN BET | +120 | -155 |
| Fanatics | +115 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +120 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +115 | -150 |
| Caesars | +105 | -135 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Mets | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +145 |
| BetRivers | +1 -143 | −1 +105 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +151 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +150 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +140 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +152 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +155 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +150 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 +118 | 7.5 -150 |
| BetRivers | 7 -125 | 7 -112 |
| DraftKings | 6.5 -146 | 6.5 +112 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -145 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -140 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 +106 | 7.5 -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -145 |
| Caesars | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -145 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Mets | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 43.3% | 57.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Polymarket contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Markets average | 43.3% | 56.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.