Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins
All Baltimore Orioles predictions · All Minnesota Twins predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 5-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Baltimore Orioles | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| BetRivers | +102 | -115 |
| DraftKings | +102 | -109 |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | +102 | -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -110 |
| Caesars | +101 | -111 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Orioles | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | −1.5 +163 | +1.5 -205 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -189 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -188 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -175 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +170 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
| BetRivers | 9 -109 | 9 -110 |
| DraftKings | 9 -111 | 9 -108 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +115 | 9.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
| FanDuel | 9 -118 | 9 -104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +120 | 9.5 -130 |
| Caesars | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Baltimore Orioles | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 49.5% | 52.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Markets average | 48.5% | 51.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.