Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins
MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 7:41 PM
The model's call
Minnesota Twins to win
Model confidence 51.4%
Books consensus 51.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Baltimore Orioles | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -102 | -118 |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | -104 | -112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Baltimore Orioles | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 50.0% | 52.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Polymarket contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Markets average | 48.1% | 51.9% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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