Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox
MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 7:41 PM
The model's call
Chicago White Sox to win
Model confidence 59.5%
Books consensus 59.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Cincinnati Reds | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| ESPN BET | +140 | -165 |
| FanDuel | +140 | -166 |
| Caesars | +143 | -153 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Cincinnati Reds | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 41.2% | 60.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| Polymarket contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Markets average | 41.7% | 58.3% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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