Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox
All Cincinnati Reds predictions · All Chicago White Sox predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 5-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Cincinnati Reds | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| BetRivers | +140 | -162 |
| DraftKings | +138 | -148 |
| ESPN BET | +135 | -155 |
| Fanatics | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +142 | -154 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +140 | -150 |
| Caesars | +140 | -150 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Reds | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +135 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +135 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -173 | −1.5 +142 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +140 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +135 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -164 | −1.5 +136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +140 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +140 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 8 -103 | 8 -118 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -112 | 7.5 -108 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -118 | 7.5 -104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Cincinnati Reds | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 41.3% | 59.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 40.0% | 60.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.