Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals
All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All St. Louis Cardinals predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 7:46 PM · Final: 0-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -162 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -159 | +148 |
| ESPN BET | -155 | +135 |
| Fanatics | -165 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -154 | +142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -155 | +145 |
| Caesars | -157 | +147 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Phillies | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -135 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +105 | +1.5 -127 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +102 | +1.5 -123 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -135 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +105 | +1.5 -126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -120 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -114 | 7.5 -106 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 60.6% | 40.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Markets average | 60.5% | 39.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.