Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants
All Houston Astros predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 9:46 PM · Final: 1-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Houston Astros | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -190 | +155 |
| BetRivers | -182 | +160 |
| DraftKings | -187 | +173 |
| ESPN BET | -190 | +160 |
| Fanatics | -195 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -184 | +170 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -180 | +170 |
| Caesars | -193 | +173 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Astros | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 -120 | +1.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 -109 | +1.5 -112 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 -119 | +1.5 -102 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 -120 | +1.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 -120 | +1.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 -113 | +1.5 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 -110 | +1.5 +100 |
| Caesars | −1.5 -120 | +1.5 +100 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8 -109 | 8 -110 |
| DraftKings | 8 -107 | 8 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -130 | 7.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8 -106 | 8 -114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Houston Astros | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 64.3% | 36.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| Polymarket contract price | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| Markets average | 64.2% | 35.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.