Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants

All Houston Astros predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 9:46 PM · Final: 1-4

The model's call
Houston Astros to win
Model confidence 63.3%
Books consensus 63.3%
Result San Francisco Giants won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Houston AstrosSan Francisco Giants
BetMGM -190 +155
BetRivers -182 +160
DraftKings -187 +173
ESPN BET -190 +160
Fanatics -195 +160
FanDuel -184 +170
Hard Rock Bet -180 +170
Caesars -193 +173

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Houston AstrosSan Francisco Giants
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 63.3% 36.7%
Best book price incl. vig 64.3% 36.6%
Kalshi contract price 63.9% 36.1%
Polymarket contract price 64.5% 35.5%
Markets average 64.2% 35.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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