Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins
All Baltimore Orioles predictions · All Minnesota Twins predictions
MLB · Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · 1:41 PM · Final: 5-7
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Baltimore Orioles | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | -105 | -114 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -105 |
| ESPN BET | -108 | -102 |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -104 | -104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -105 |
| Caesars | -108 | -102 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Orioles | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -195 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +151 | +1.5 -184 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -180 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -188 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -175 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +175 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -102 | 9 -118 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -109 | 8.5 -112 |
| DraftKings | 9 -101 | 9 -120 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -124 | 8.5 +102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Baltimore Orioles | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 50.5% | 50.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Markets average | 49.5% | 50.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.