Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals

All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All St. Louis Cardinals predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · 2:15 PM · Final: 1-7

The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 60.4%
Books consensus 60.4%
Result St. Louis Cardinals won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Philadelphia PhilliesSt. Louis Cardinals
BetMGM -170 +140
BetRivers -165 +140
DraftKings -163 +151
ESPN BET -163 +150
Fanatics -170 +140
FanDuel -164 +150
Hard Rock Bet -160 +150
Caesars -157 +147

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Philadelphia PhilliesSt. Louis Cardinals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 60.4% 39.6%
Best book price incl. vig 61.1% 39.8%
Kalshi contract price 60.5% 39.5%
Polymarket contract price 60.5% 39.5%
Markets average 60.5% 39.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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