Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
All Boston Red Sox predictions · All Toronto Blue Jays predictions
MLB · Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · 7:07 PM · Final: 4-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -140 | +115 |
| BetRivers | -127 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -129 | +120 |
| ESPN BET | -135 | +115 |
| Fanatics | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -128 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -130 | +120 |
| Caesars | -130 | +120 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Red Sox | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +125 | +1.5 -155 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +132 | +1.5 -162 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +129 | +1.5 -156 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -160 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -160 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -156 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -150 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -155 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -125 |
| BetRivers | 7 -120 | 7 +100 |
| DraftKings | 7 -120 | 7 -101 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | 7 -120 | 7 +100 |
| FanDuel | 7 -122 | 7 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 7 -120 | 7 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 55.9% | 45.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| Polymarket contract price | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| Markets average | 55.2% | 44.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.