Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox

All Cincinnati Reds predictions · All Chicago White Sox predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · 7:40 PM · Final: 0-5

The model's call
Chicago White Sox to win
Model confidence 57.6%
Books consensus 57.6%
Result Chicago White Sox won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Cincinnati RedsChicago White Sox
BetMGM +125 -155
BetRivers +130 -148
DraftKings +132 -142
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +130 -140
Hard Rock Bet +130 -140
Caesars +135 -145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Cincinnati RedsChicago White Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.4% 57.6%
Best book price incl. vig 42.6% 58.3%
Kalshi contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Polymarket contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Markets average 42.0% 58.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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