Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers

All Chicago Bears predictions · All Carolina Panthers predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 1:04 PM · Final: 59-37

The model's call
Chicago Bears to win
Model confidence 59.4%
Books consensus 59.4%
Result Chicago Bears won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago BearsCarolina Panthers
BetMGM -160 +135
BetRivers -167 +138
DraftKings -166 +140
ESPN BET -155 +135
Fanatics -165 +135
FanDuel -162 +136
Hard Rock Bet -175 +145
Caesars -162 +136

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Bears −3
priced 49.6% to cover · 8 books
opened Bears −2.5
Chicago Bears covered −3
Total · closing
O/U 46.5
priced 51.1% over · 3 books, 5 on another number
opened 47.5
Over 46.5 (96 scored)
Spread by book BearsPanthers
BetMGM −3 -105 +3 -105
BetRivers −3 -110 +3 -110
DraftKings −3 -112 +3 -108
ESPN BET −3 +100 +3 -120
Fanatics −3 -105 +3 -115
FanDuel −3 -105 +3 -115
Hard Rock Bet −3 -115 +3 -105
Caesars −3 -106 +3 -113
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 47 -110 47 -108
BetRivers 47 -108 47 -113
DraftKings 47.5 -105 47.5 -115
ESPN BET 47.5 +100 47.5 -120
Fanatics 46.5 -115 46.5 -105
FanDuel 46.5 -114 46.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet 47 -110 47 -110
Caesars 46.5 -120 46.5 -102

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago BearsCarolina Panthers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 59.4% 40.6%
Best book price incl. vig 60.8% 40.8%
Kalshi contract price 60.5% 39.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record