Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

All Washington Commanders predictions · All Philadelphia Eagles predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 4:25 PM · Final: 22-24

The model's call
Philadelphia Eagles to win
Model confidence 69.4%
Books consensus 69.4%
Result Philadelphia Eagles won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington CommandersPhiladelphia Eagles
BetMGM +220 -275
BetRivers +210 -265
DraftKings +200 -245
ESPN BET +225 -275
Fanatics +210 -260
FanDuel +215 -260
Hard Rock Bet +225 -275
Caesars +210 -260

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Eagles −6
priced 49.9% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened Eagles −4.5
Washington Commanders covered +6
Total · closing
O/U 43.5
priced 51.1% over · 3 books, 5 on another number
opened 46.5
Over 43.5 (46 scored)
Spread by book CommandersEagles
BetMGM +5.5 -110 −5.5 -120
BetRivers +6 -114 −6 -107
DraftKings +6 -110 −6 -110
ESPN BET +6 -105 −6 -115
Fanatics +5.5 -105 −5.5 -115
FanDuel +5.5 -106 −5.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet +6.5 -115 −6.5 -105
Caesars +6 -110 −6 -108
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 44 -108 44 -110
BetRivers 44 -113 44 -108
DraftKings 43.5 -115 43.5 -105
ESPN BET 44.5 -105 44.5 -115
Fanatics 43.5 -115 43.5 -105
FanDuel 44.5 -105 44.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 44 -110 44 -110
Caesars 43.5 -118 43.5 -103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington CommandersPhiladelphia Eagles
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 30.6% 69.4%
Best book price incl. vig 30.8% 71.0%
Kalshi contract price 30.5% 69.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record