Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills
All Detroit Lions predictions · All Buffalo Bills predictions
NFL · Thursday, September 17, 2026 · 8:17 PM · Final: 31-41
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Detroit Lions | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +200 | -250 |
| BetRivers | +190 | -245 |
| DraftKings | +195 | -238 |
| ESPN BET | +201 | -241 |
| Fanatics | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +198 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +210 | -250 |
| Caesars | +205 | -245 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Lions | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +5 -102 | −5 -108 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -110 | −5.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -115 | −5.5 -105 |
| ESPN BET | +5.5 -115 | −5.5 -102 |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | −5 -110 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -115 | −5.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | −5.5 -115 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -114 | −5.5 -106 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 54.5 -112 | 54.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 54.5 -114 | 54.5 -107 |
| DraftKings | 54.5 -118 | 54.5 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 55.5 -105 | 55.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | 54.5 -115 | 54.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 54.5 -115 | 54.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 55 -110 | 55 -110 |
| Caesars | 54.5 -115 | 54.5 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Detroit Lions | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 32.0% | 68.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 32.3% | 70.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 30.5% | 69.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.