Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
All Pittsburgh Steelers predictions · All New England Patriots predictions
NFL · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 1:02 PM · Final: 3-20
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Steelers | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +188 | -225 |
| BetRivers | +185 | -235 |
| DraftKings | +185 | -225 |
| ESPN BET | +195 | -230 |
| Fanatics | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +194 | -235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +195 | -240 |
| Caesars | +194 | -235 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Steelers | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +4.5 -112 | −4.5 -118 |
| BetRivers | +5 -109 | −5 -112 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -102 | −4.5 -118 |
| ESPN BET | +5.5 -110 | −5.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | −4.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -105 | −4.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | −5.5 -110 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -109 | −4.5 -110 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 41.5 -108 | 41.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | 41 -113 | 41 -108 |
| DraftKings | 41.5 -105 | 41.5 -115 |
| ESPN BET | 41.5 -105 | 41.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | 41.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 41.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 41 -115 | 41 -105 |
| Caesars | 41.5 -109 | 41.5 -112 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Steelers | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 33.9% | 69.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 31.8% | 68.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.