Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders

All Seattle Seahawks predictions · All Washington Commanders predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 1:03 PM · Final: 31-33

The model's call
Seattle Seahawks to win
Model confidence 77.2%
Books consensus 77.2%
Result Washington Commanders won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Seattle SeahawksWashington Commanders
BetMGM -425 +320
BetRivers -400 +310
DraftKings -410 +320
ESPN BET -380 +290
Fanatics -425 +325
FanDuel -420 +330
Hard Rock Bet -425 +325
Caesars -400 +320

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Seahawks −8.5
priced 49.0% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened Seahawks −6
Washington Commanders covered +8.5
Total · closing
O/U 40.5
priced 49.2% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 46.5
Over 40.5 (64 scored)
Spread by book SeahawksCommanders
BetMGM −8.5 -105 +8.5 -105
BetRivers −8 -109 +8 -112
DraftKings −8.5 -105 +8.5 -115
ESPN BET −7.5 -115 +7.5 -105
Fanatics −8 -110 +8 -110
FanDuel −8.5 -105 +8.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet −8 -110 +8 -105
Caesars −8.5 -106 +8.5 -114
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 40.5 -108 40.5 -110
BetRivers 40.5 -107 40.5 -114
DraftKings 40.5 -108 40.5 -112
ESPN BET 39.5 -120 39.5 +100
Fanatics 40.5 -105 40.5 -115
FanDuel 40.5 -105 40.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 40.5 -110 40.5 -110
Caesars 40.5 -107 40.5 -114

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Seattle SeahawksWashington Commanders
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 77.2% 22.8%
Best book price incl. vig 79.2% 23.3%
Kalshi contract price 77.5% 22.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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