Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
All Indianapolis Colts predictions · All Washington Commanders predictions
NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 9:32 AM · Final: 30-13
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Indianapolis Colts | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -235 | +190 |
| BetRivers | -215 | +175 |
| DraftKings | -230 | +190 |
| ESPN BET | -225 | +190 |
| Fanatics | -235 | +190 |
| FanDuel | -230 | +190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -230 | +190 |
| Caesars | -230 | +188 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Colts | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −5 -110 | +5 -108 |
| BetRivers | −4.5 -110 | +4.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | −4.5 -118 | +4.5 -102 |
| ESPN BET | −4.5 -115 | +4.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | −5 -110 | +5 -110 |
| FanDuel | −4.5 -115 | +4.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −5 -110 | +5 -110 |
| Caesars | −5 -110 | +5 -110 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -108 |
| BetRivers | 46.5 -112 | 46.5 -109 |
| DraftKings | 46.5 -108 | 46.5 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 46.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 46.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 46.5 -112 | 46.5 -108 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Indianapolis Colts | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 68.3% | 34.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 66.5% | 33.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.