Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

All Atlanta Falcons predictions · All Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions

NFL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM

The model's call
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win
Model confidence 55.3%
Books consensus 55.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay Buccaneers
BetMGM +115 -135
BetRivers +108 -132
DraftKings +114 -135
ESPN BET +105 -125
Fanatics +115 -140
FanDuel +108 -126
Hard Rock Bet +120 -135
Novig +125 -127
Caesars +118 -138

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Buccaneers −2.5
priced 49.8% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Buccaneers −1.5
Total
O/U 43.5
priced 51.1% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 44.5
Spread by book FalconsBuccaneers
BetMGM +2.5 -110 −2.5 -108
BetRivers +2 -112 −2 -110
DraftKings +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
ESPN BET +2.5 -115 −2.5 -105
Fanatics +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
FanDuel +2.5 -115 −2.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet +2.5 -105 −2.5 -115
Caesars +2.5 -113 −2.5 -106
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 43.5 -110 43.5 -108
BetRivers 43.5 -117 43.5 -107
DraftKings 43.5 -115 43.5 -105
ESPN BET 43.5 -105 43.5 -115
Fanatics 44 -110 44 -110
FanDuel 43.5 -115 43.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 44 -110 44 -110
Caesars 43.5 -115 43.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 44.7% 55.3%
Best book price incl. vig 44.4% 55.6%
Kalshi contract price 44.5% 55.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record