Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

All Baltimore Ravens predictions · All Buffalo Bills predictions

NFL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM

The model's call
Buffalo Bills to win
Model confidence 60.9%
Books consensus 60.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Baltimore RavensBuffalo Bills
BetMGM +150 -185
BetRivers +140 -175
DraftKings +145 -175
ESPN BET +145 -170
Fanatics +150 -180
FanDuel +142 -168
Hard Rock Bet +145 -175
Novig +156 -163
Caesars +145 -173

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Bills −3
priced 51.1% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Bills −2.5
Total
O/U 54.5
priced 49.9% over · 8 books
opened 53.5
Spread by book RavensBills
BetMGM +3.5 -125 −3.5 -105
BetRivers +3 -108 −3 -113
DraftKings +3 -105 −3 -115
ESPN BET +3 +100 −3 -120
Fanatics +3.5 -120 −3.5 +100
FanDuel +3 -105 −3 -115
Hard Rock Bet +3 -105 −3 -115
Caesars +3 -105 −3 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 54.5 -108 54.5 -110
BetRivers 54.5 -112 54.5 -109
DraftKings 54.5 -110 54.5 -110
ESPN BET 54.5 -105 54.5 -115
Fanatics 54.5 -110 54.5 -110
FanDuel 54.5 -105 54.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 54.5 -110 54.5 -110
Caesars 54.5 -109 54.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Baltimore RavensBuffalo Bills
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.1% 60.9%
Best book price incl. vig 39.1% 62.0%
Kalshi contract price 38.5% 61.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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