Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

All Philadelphia Eagles predictions · All Washington Commanders predictions

NFL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 8:20 PM

The model's call
Washington Commanders to win
Model confidence 69.2%
Books consensus 69.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Philadelphia EaglesWashington Commanders
BetMGM +210 -250
BetRivers +200 -250
DraftKings +210 -258
ESPN BET +230 -280
Fanatics +210 -260
FanDuel +230 -280
Hard Rock Bet +220 -275
Novig +239 -245
Caesars +210 -265

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Commanders −6
priced 50.0% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Commanders −4
Total
O/U 40.5
priced 49.5% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book EaglesCommanders
BetMGM +6 -108 −6 -110
BetRivers +5.5 -107 −5.5 -114
DraftKings +6 -110 −6 -110
ESPN BET +6 -110 −6 -110
Fanatics +6 -110 −6 -110
FanDuel +5.5 +100 −5.5 -122
Hard Rock Bet +6 -110 −6 -110
Caesars +6 -109 −6 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 40 -112 40 -108
BetRivers 40.5 -112 40.5 -109
DraftKings 40.5 -110 40.5 -110
ESPN BET 40.5 +100 40.5 -120
Fanatics 40.5 -105 40.5 -115
FanDuel 40.5 -105 40.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 40 -115 40 -105
Caesars 40.5 -112 40.5 -108

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Philadelphia EaglesWashington Commanders
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 30.8% 69.2%
Best book price incl. vig 29.5% 71.0%
Kalshi contract price 29.5% 70.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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