Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
All Kansas City Chiefs predictions · All Atlanta Falcons predictions
NFL · Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 1:00 PM
The model's call
Kansas City Chiefs to win
Model confidence 61.5%
Books consensus 61.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Kansas City Chiefs | Atlanta Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -180 | +152 |
| Novig | -182 | +153 |
| Caesars | -176 | +148 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread
Chiefs −3
priced 52.3% to cover · 2 books, 1 on another number
Total
O/U 46.5
priced 50.9% over · 3 books
| Spread by book | Chiefs | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −3 -120 | +3 +100 |
| FanDuel | −3.5 -105 | +3.5 -115 |
| Caesars | −3 -121 | +3 +101 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 46.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 46.5 -114 | 46.5 -106 |
| Caesars | 46.5 -114 | 46.5 -106 |
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