St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
MLB · Saturday, July 4, 2026 · 8:09 PM · Final: 3-0
The model's call
Chicago Cubs to win
Model confidence 59.4%
Books consensus 59.4%
Result St. Louis Cardinals won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +135 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +135 | -167 |
| DraftKings | +139 | -168 |
| ESPN BET | +135 | -155 |
| Fanatics | +135 | -165 |
| FanDuel | +134 | -158 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -165 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
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