Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions
MLB · Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 2-8
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 |
| BetRivers | +104 | -117 |
| DraftKings | +111 | -119 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +106 | -116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +110 | -121 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Pirates | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -225 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +168 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -215 | −1.5 +170 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +165 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +172 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +175 | +1.5 -185 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +170 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8 -112 | 8 -108 |
| DraftKings | 8 -113 | 8 -106 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 47.4% | 53.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.7% | 52.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.