Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants
MLB · Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · 3:46 PM
The model's call
Houston Astros to win
Model confidence 57.4%
Books consensus 57.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Houston Astros | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -155 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -150 | +128 |
| DraftKings | -141 | +131 |
| ESPN BET | -145 | +125 |
| Fanatics | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -138 | +128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -140 | +130 |
| Caesars | -140 | +130 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Houston Astros | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 58.0% | 43.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Markets average | 56.5% | 43.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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