Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers

All Cleveland Guardians predictions · All Detroit Tigers predictions

MLB · Thursday, August 13, 2026 · 1:11 PM · Final: 0-3

The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 51.0%
Books consensus 51.0%
Result Detroit Tigers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Cleveland GuardiansDetroit Tigers
BetMGM -110 -110
BetRivers -121 +102
DraftKings -103 -105
ESPN BET -120 +107
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -108 +100
Hard Rock Bet -110 +100
Caesars -108 -102

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Cleveland GuardiansDetroit Tigers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.0% 49.0%
Best book price incl. vig 50.7% 48.3%
Kalshi contract price 51.5% 48.5%
Polymarket contract price 51.5% 48.5%
Markets average 51.5% 48.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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