Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions
MLB · Thursday, August 13, 2026 · 1:11 PM · Final: 13-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -124 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -119 | +111 |
| ESPN BET | -115 | +102 |
| Fanatics | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -118 | +108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -120 | +110 |
| Caesars | -121 | +110 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Pirates | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -165 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +133 | +1.5 -162 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +138 | +1.5 -167 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -160 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -165 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +134 | +1.5 -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -155 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -165 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -117 | 7.5 -105 |
| DraftKings | 8 -109 | 8 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -130 | 7.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +110 | 8.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 53.5% | 47.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Markets average | 53.5% | 46.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.