Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
MLB · Thursday, August 13, 2026 · 1:11 PM
The model's call
Pittsburgh Pirates to win
Model confidence 53.8%
Books consensus 53.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -130 | +108 |
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -120 | +110 |
| Caesars | -121 | +110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 54.5% | 47.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Markets average | 52.0% | 48.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.