Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

All Boston Red Sox predictions · All Toronto Blue Jays predictions

MLB · Thursday, August 13, 2026 · 3:08 PM · Final: 7-0

The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 56.5%
Books consensus 56.5%
Result Boston Red Sox won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays
BetMGM -145 +118
BetRivers -148 +128
DraftKings -145 +135
ESPN BET -142 +126
Fanatics -145 +120
FanDuel -134 +124
Hard Rock Bet -135 +125
Caesars -135 +125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 56.5% 43.5%
Best book price incl. vig 57.3% 42.6%
Kalshi contract price 56.5% 43.5%
Polymarket contract price 56.5% 43.5%
Markets average 56.5% 43.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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