Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins
All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All Minnesota Twins predictions
MLB · Thursday, August 13, 2026 · 7:33 PM · Final: 7-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | -107 | -107 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -105 |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -105 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | -104 | -104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -105 |
| Caesars | -105 | -105 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Phillies | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +151 | +1.5 -183 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -180 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -180 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -188 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -170 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -220 | −1.5 +180 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -117 | 8.5 -104 |
| DraftKings | 9 -104 | 9 -116 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -118 | 8.5 -104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 50.5% | 51.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Markets average | 49.5% | 50.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.