Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds

All Miami Marlins predictions · All Cincinnati Reds predictions

MLB · Friday, August 14, 2026 · 6:11 PM · Final: 0-1

The model's call
Cincinnati Reds to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result Cincinnati Reds won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Miami MarlinsCincinnati Reds
BetMGM -102 -118
BetRivers +105 -120
DraftKings +104 -112
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel +106 -114
Hard Rock Bet +105 -115
Caesars +106 -116

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Miami MarlinsCincinnati Reds
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 47.8% 52.2%
Best book price incl. vig 48.5% 52.8%
Kalshi contract price 48.5% 51.5%
Polymarket contract price 48.5% 51.5%
Markets average 48.5% 51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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